feat(arc): 赛马输家逐项消融（开发窗口单因素回测，结果回流研究记忆）

README.en.md

@@ -55,7 +55,7 @@ It is not an automated money maker, promises no profitability, and does not prov
 ```mermaid
 flowchart LR
   Op["Operator / External Agent<br/>Web · ht CLI · TUI · Desktop"] --> API["FastAPI Control Plane<br/>Mission · TokenManager · Probes (/livez, /readyz, /healthz)"]
-  API --> DB[("PostgreSQL + pgvector<br/>50 migrations · Mission projections · HET tree · Memory")]
+  API --> DB[("PostgreSQL + pgvector<br/>51 migrations · Mission projections · HET tree · Memory")]
   Worker["Worker Loops (13 Loops)<br/>Mission · AVO research · evolution · auto-review · meta-tuning"] --> DB
   Worker --> Research["ARC Autonomous Research Loop (AVO + RD-Agent)<br/>HET tree → Co-STEER synthesis → AST gatekeeper → sandbox → baseline"]
   Worker --> Evolution["Evolution Engine (default on)<br/>decay scan → budget admission → re-research → race duel → ledger"]
@@ -213,7 +213,7 @@ Single command executes all quality gates: Frontend lint, Vitest, and production
 | **Control Plane** | FastAPI 0.122+ / Uvicorn, scoped security tokens, `/livez`, `/readyz`, `/healthz` container probes, cursor SSE |
 | **Credential Security**| `TokenRotationService` (SHA-256 single-way hashing, zero plaintext storage, 24h grace period hot rotation, 7-day expiration audit) |
 | **Domain & Runtime** | Python 3.12+, Pydantic v2 strict models, modular monolith + ports-and-adapters |
-| **Storage** | SQLAlchemy 2.0 + Alembic (50 migrations), PostgreSQL 14+ with `pgvector` |
+| **Storage** | SQLAlchemy 2.0 + Alembic (51 migrations), PostgreSQL 14+ with `pgvector` |
 | **Workers** | asyncio + PostgreSQL SQL lease locking (13 concurrent background loops) |
 | **Research Core** | ARC + RD-Agent Hypothesis Evolution Tree (HET) + Co-STEER synthesizer + `ASTGatekeeper` |
 | **Target Adapters** | `market_target.v1` and `market-evolution.v1` MCP contracts; BitPro (Crypto) + QuantLab (A-Shares) |

README.md

@@ -55,7 +55,7 @@ It is not an automated money maker, promises no profitability, and does not prov
 ```mermaid
 flowchart LR
   Op["Operator / External Agent<br/>Web · ht CLI · TUI · Desktop"] --> API["FastAPI Control Plane<br/>Mission · TokenManager · Probes (/livez, /readyz, /healthz)"]
-  API --> DB[("PostgreSQL + pgvector<br/>50 migrations · Mission projections · HET tree · Memory")]
+  API --> DB[("PostgreSQL + pgvector<br/>51 migrations · Mission projections · HET tree · Memory")]
   Worker["Worker Loops (13 Loops)<br/>Mission · AVO research · evolution · auto-review · meta-tuning"] --> DB
   Worker --> Research["ARC Autonomous Research Loop (AVO + RD-Agent)<br/>HET tree → Co-STEER synthesis → AST gatekeeper → sandbox → baseline"]
   Worker --> Evolution["Evolution Engine (default on)<br/>decay scan → budget admission → re-research → race duel → ledger"]

README.zh-CN.md

@@ -55,7 +55,7 @@
 ```mermaid
 flowchart LR
   Op["操作员 / 外部 Agent<br/>Web · ht CLI · TUI · Desktop"] --> API["FastAPI 控制面<br/>Mission · TokenManager · Probes (/livez, /readyz, /healthz)"]
-  API --> DB[("PostgreSQL + pgvector<br/>50 项迁移 · Mission 投影 · 演进树 · 记忆库")]
+  API --> DB[("PostgreSQL + pgvector<br/>51 项迁移 · Mission 投影 · 演进树 · 记忆库")]
   Worker["Worker 循环 (13 个 Loop)<br/>Mission · AVO 研究 · 进化扫描 · 自动评审 · 元学习"] --> DB
   Worker --> Research["ARC 自主研究循环 (AVO + RD-Agent)<br/>HET 假设树 → Co-STEER 合成 → AST 门禁 → 沙箱自测 → 基线对比"]
   Worker --> Evolution["自主进化引擎（默认开启）<br/>退化扫描 → 预算准入 → 再研究 → 赛马对决 → 效果账本"]
@@ -213,7 +213,7 @@ curl http://localhost:3334/api/portfolio/relay/handovers
 | **控制面** | FastAPI 0.122+ / Uvicorn，作用域安全令牌，`/livez`, `/readyz`, `/healthz` 容器探活矩阵，游标可续传 SSE |
 | **凭据安全** | `TokenRotationService`（SHA-256 单向散列，零明文存储，24h 宽限期热轮换，7天临期审计） |
 | **运行时与领域** | Python 3.12+、Pydantic v2 严格合同，模块化单体 + ports-and-adapters |
-| **存储** | SQLAlchemy 2.0 + Alembic（50 个迁移），PostgreSQL 14+ 带 `pgvector` |
+| **存储** | SQLAlchemy 2.0 + Alembic（51 个迁移），PostgreSQL 14+ 带 `pgvector` |
 | **Worker 集群** | asyncio + PostgreSQL SQL lease 租约（13 个并发后台循环） |
 | **研究与演进中枢** | ARC + RD-Agent 假设演进树 (HET) + Co-STEER 代码合成器 + `ASTGatekeeper` 语法守卫 |
 | **多市场目标适配** | `market_target.v1` 与 `market-evolution.v1` MCP 契约；BitPro (Crypto) + QuantLab (A股) |

backend/alembic/versions/0051_arc_ablation_runs.py

@@ -0,0 +1,118 @@
+"""Persist per-change ablation of forward losers (development-window backtests only).
+
+Ablation records are observations, not causal verdicts. Neither table holds a
+foreign key to ``arc_forward_outcomes``: correcting a ledger row must not rewrite
+or delete the backtest evidence already produced for it.
+"""
+
+from collections.abc import Sequence
+
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+from alembic import op
+
+revision: str = "0051_arc_ablation_runs"
+down_revision: str | None = "0050_arc_forward_outcomes"
+branch_labels: str | Sequence[str] | None = None
+depends_on: str | Sequence[str] | None = None
+
+
+def _timestamps() -> tuple[sa.Column[object], sa.Column[object]]:
+    return (
+        sa.Column(
+            "created_at",
+            sa.DateTime(timezone=True),
+            nullable=False,
+            server_default=sa.func.now(),
+        ),
+        sa.Column(
+            "updated_at",
+            sa.DateTime(timezone=True),
+            nullable=False,
+            server_default=sa.func.now(),
+        ),
+    )
+
+
+def _tables() -> set[str]:
+    return set(sa.inspect(op.get_bind()).get_table_names())
+
+
+def _indexes(table: str) -> set[str]:
+    return {item["name"] for item in sa.inspect(op.get_bind()).get_indexes(table)}
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    # Idempotent on purpose: developer databases already got these tables from
+    # ``create_all``, and a partially applied migration must be safe to re-run.
+    if "arc_ablation_runs" not in _tables():
+        op.create_table(
+            "arc_ablation_runs",
+            sa.Column("id", sa.String(64), primary_key=True),
+            sa.Column("outcome_id", sa.String(64), nullable=False),
+            sa.Column("target_id", sa.String(32), nullable=False),
+            sa.Column("parent_strategy_id", sa.String(64), nullable=False),
+            sa.Column("challenger_strategy_id", sa.String(64), nullable=False),
+            sa.Column("status", sa.String(16), nullable=False, server_default="pending"),
+            sa.Column("reason", sa.String(64), nullable=False, server_default=""),
+            sa.Column("message", sa.Text(), nullable=False, server_default=""),
+            sa.Column("research_id", sa.String(64), nullable=False, server_default=""),
+            sa.Column("window_json", sa.JSON(), nullable=False, server_default="{}"),
+            sa.Column("plan_json", sa.JSON(), nullable=False, server_default="{}"),
+            sa.Column("result_json", sa.JSON(), nullable=False, server_default="{}"),
+            sa.Column("next_check_at", sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=True),
+            sa.Column("started_at", sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=True),
+            sa.Column("finished_at", sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=True),
+            *_timestamps(),
+            sa.UniqueConstraint(
+                "target_id",
+                "challenger_strategy_id",
+                name="uq_arc_ablation_run_challenger",
+            ),
+            sa.UniqueConstraint("outcome_id", name="uq_arc_ablation_run_outcome"),
+        )
+
+    run_indexes = _indexes("arc_ablation_runs")
+    for name, columns in (
+        ("ix_arc_ablation_runs_parent_strategy_id", ["parent_strategy_id"]),
+        ("ix_arc_ablation_runs_status", ["status"]),
+        ("ix_arc_ablation_runs_next_check_at", ["next_check_at"]),
+    ):
+        if name not in run_indexes:
+            op.create_index(name, "arc_ablation_runs", columns)
+
+    if "arc_ablation_steps" not in _tables():
+        op.create_table(
+            "arc_ablation_steps",
+            sa.Column("id", sa.String(64), primary_key=True),
+            sa.Column("run_id", sa.String(64), nullable=False),
+            sa.Column("step_key", sa.String(160), nullable=False),
+            sa.Column("ordinal", sa.Integer(), nullable=False, server_default="0"),
+            sa.Column("kind", sa.String(16), nullable=False),
+            sa.Column("change_json", sa.JSON(), nullable=False, server_default="{}"),
+            sa.Column("status", sa.String(16), nullable=False, server_default="pending"),
+            sa.Column("reason", sa.String(128), nullable=False, server_default=""),
+            sa.Column("request_hash", sa.String(64), nullable=False, server_default=""),
+            sa.Column("checkpoint_json", sa.JSON(), nullable=False, server_default="{}"),
+            sa.Column("result_json", sa.JSON(), nullable=False, server_default="{}"),
+            sa.Column("charged_at", sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=True),
+            *_timestamps(),
+            sa.UniqueConstraint("run_id", "step_key", name="uq_arc_ablation_step"),
+        )
+
+    step_indexes = _indexes("arc_ablation_steps")
+    for name, columns in (
+        ("ix_arc_ablation_steps_run_id", ["run_id"]),
+        ("ix_arc_ablation_steps_status", ["status"]),
+        ("ix_arc_ablation_steps_request_hash", ["request_hash"]),
+        ("ix_arc_ablation_steps_charged_at", ["charged_at"]),
+    ):
+        if name not in step_indexes:
+            op.create_index(name, "arc_ablation_steps", columns)
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    tables = _tables()
+    if "arc_ablation_steps" in tables:
+        op.drop_table("arc_ablation_steps")
+    if "arc_ablation_runs" in tables:
+        op.drop_table("arc_ablation_runs")