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feat(logspace): prove concrete true sample means - #1749

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feat/logspace-true-sample-means
Oct 30, 2026
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feat/logspace-true-sample-means

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The additive estimator needs exact means for its sampled terms before their errors can be bounded. This PR proves the actual nested-slice importance change, the unconditioned correction-atom mean, and the correction–dense product mean over the three source/middle/terminal seed factors. The proof derives the identities from the concrete atom normalization theorems and the true factors' actual seed dependence; no mean-identity or estimated-factor independence contract is assumed.

The terminal density ratio and middle f/pi_f factor are explicit. A concrete example discharges every gate, pair-count, subset, and density hypothesis: both correction factors equal two, the active product draw is 2/3, and its conditional mean over four draws is exactly 1/6.

This covers the raw dense-direct and correction–dense product terms of OpenAI2026LogSpace Lemma 7.1, before parent-scale division. Actual inherited channel slices, copy projections, preparatory/detector/reward terms, and full recursive assembly remain in #1721 and #1444.

Based on #1742 (feat/logspace-source-release). Integrated strict source/test builds, tracked aggregate checks, hygiene, whitespace, and committed import checks pass. Full gates run in CI. Independent agent review by codex-logspace-polynomial-cutoffs-20261030 approved the unchanged files; the commit records the evidence. No formal-abstract change: this is an exact sampling-identity milestone.

Worker: codex-source-release-20261030; publication: codex-logspace-stack-20261030. AI-assisted implementation and agent review.

Prove the finite double-counting inequality in the source-domain part of
OpenAI2026LogSpace Lemma 7.3 and its exact K * (f / u) cost in integrated
table and vector norms. Instantiate both statements with correctionAtom,
discharging the incoming-degree bound from its incoming gate. Shared
environment dependence remains unrestricted; the right error is common
to every old source.

Expose the rowNormPow and vertexNormPow bodies for this downstream
mathematical consumer. No definitions or theorem statements change.

Validation against base 2d1638c: direct Lean elaboration with project
options and warnings as errors passed for RootMetric, SourceRelease,
ComplexityTests.SourceRelease and the existing ComplexityTests.RootMetric
(covering AtomCutoffs and RootError). Outputs were private; dependencies
were read-only. Hygiene with --check-simp and git diff --check passed.
The changed-file lint requires the absent ComplexityAbstracts.ilean root
in this source-only worktree, so its full check and project-wide gates
remain for CI. Aggregate imports are left to the integrating coordinator.

Tests include a sharp f / u = 2 example with correlated support and error,
and a correction atom with a verified nonzero edge. This proves the
source-release inequality, not the remaining scale comparisons, true
sample means, recursive estimator or native BPL-to-L machine.

AI assistance: OpenAI Codex implemented and checked this change.

Independent agent source/API review: codex-logspace-polynomial-cutoffs-20261030 approved final43118874cf98b42ae1ed3bc776a6c7e6fd9f4d6d. Publication adds only the generated aggregate import. Integrated strict builds of SourceRelease, its tests and existing RootMetric tests pass. Full gates run in PR CI.
Remove three stray aggregate imports introduced during local integration. Source-release proofs, APIs and tests remain unchanged. The committed import graph is now checked before publication.
Prove the direct dense and correction-dense mean identities from the
actual atom definitions on their finite conditioning slices. The exact
terminal density ratio changes to the nested usage slice, and f / pi_f
cancels the intermediate retention density. Finite product averages
factorize because the true right dense atom uses only the terminal seed.
Both atom normalizations are derived from the existing gate and
pair-count hypotheses, rather than assumed as mean contracts.

This implements the direct/product part of OpenAI2026LogSpace Lemma 7.1
at pinned source revision 7ef5c0cc, before division by the parent scale.
Copy, detector, reward and conditional-walk assembly remain separate.
It makes no estimator-error or machine-space claim.

Validation against source-release 43118874: TrueSampleMeans and
ComplexityTests.TrueSampleMeans elaborate with project options and
warnings as errors, using private outputs and read-only dependencies.
Hygiene with --check-simp and git diff --check passed. Full project gates
and import aggregate registration remain for the integrating coordinator
and CI.

The concrete example has middle hit probability 1/2, terminal broad
density 1/2 and usage density 1/4. Both correction factors equal two;
the active sample is 2/3 and the conditional product mean is 1/6.
All gate, pair-count, subset and density hypotheses are discharged.

AI assistance: OpenAI Codex implemented and checked this change.

Independent agent source/API review: codex-logspace-polynomial-cutoffs-20261030 approved 9c1014a804ed32d06ba499196f460987b6a3d87d against the pinned Lemma7.1. Publication preserves the reviewed source/tests and adds only generated import registration.
Integrated strict source/test builds, tracked aggregate check, whitespace and committed import checks pass. Full integration gates run in PR CI.

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reviewer-codex-edemaine — independent agent review: APPROVE b986884. Reviewed the complete three-file layer over #1742 at 755e8f6 and the actual dense/correction atom definitions and normalization APIs. No blocking findings.

The finite support identity changes a broad conditioning slice to its nonempty subset using the exact density ratio. The correction mask contributes πf when its intermediate seed is unconditioned. In the product, the true correction depends only on source/middle seeds and the true dense atom only on the terminal seed, so finite product averages factor and f/πf cancels the intermediate hit. Positivity and actual constant middle-density hypotheses are explicit; no independence or mean contract for estimated factors is assumed. Checked the raw direct/product formulas (7.1)–(7.2) and Lemma 7.1 against pinned source 7ef5c0cc, pp. 34–35. Inherited channel instances, projections and other estimator terms remain outside scope.

The test discharges every gate, pair-count and density premise with both importance factors equal to two, a nonzero sample 2/3 and mean 1/6 over four conditioning draws. Module placement and no-abstract-impact assessment fit this sampling-identity layer. Local whitespace and exact-tree aggregate checks passed; no local Lean build. At the single inspection, Lean CI 41086290068 was running and title validation passed. Live head rechecked before posting. Agent review, not human approval.

SamuelSchlesinger commented Oct 30, 2026 •

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Non-author coordinator review_logsq_savitch_1671 is taking integration, reusing outside correctness/API/source approval of unchanged b9868847c6efc58cfdf516553801e873a277f7a2. Canonical CI passed all six gates. Neutral-text preflight on the actual accepted #1689 candidate is clean: both reviewed Lean/test payloads and modes are exact, all prefix paths are preserved, and the aggregate is canonical. Normal guarded integration landed at 2e6b7b40bbe8e47cf2315fc9e1ca59f77a459685, exactly matching neutral-text preflight tree 5892ccc1763584b15dc2c6ae33c1f457342061e8. Required merge-group CI passed all six. Integration/cache is complete through the verified #1765 descendant publication, whose exact-main all-six checks and usable public mapping retain these payloads. The pending exact-main consumer was superseded with zero jobs; no restart or duplicated cache audit. This proves exact means for concrete raw dense/correction terms under the stated slice, pair-count and density assumptions; inherited channels, other estimator terms and recursive/machine assembly remain open in #1721/#1444. No selected-abstract impact. Agent coordination, not human approval.

@SamuelSchlesinger
SamuelSchlesinger changed the base branch from feat/logspace-source-release to main October 30, 2026 20:52
@SamuelSchlesinger
SamuelSchlesinger added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 30, 2026
Merged via the queue into main with commit 2e6b7b4 Oct 30, 2026
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2 participants