Contagion Radar is a financial risk intelligence platform designed to help identify, analyze, and visualize how financial distress can spread across interconnected businesses in India's Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) ecosystem.
India's MSMEs play a crucial role in the economy, but delayed payments, cash-flow shortages, and financial dependencies can expose them to significant risks.
When a large buyer delays payment to a supplier, that supplier may struggle to pay its own vendors, employees, and lenders. This can trigger a chain reaction of financial stress across the supply chain.
Contagion Radar aims to make these hidden financial connections visible.
The platform focuses on identifying potential financial vulnerabilities, exploring how risks may propagate between connected businesses, and supporting earlier risk awareness through an intuitive financial intelligence dashboard.
Financial distress can spread beyond the business where it originates.
- Delayed Payments: Suppliers may wait weeks or months to receive payments from buyers.
- Cash-Flow Disruptions: Unpaid invoices can limit a business's ability to meet operating expenses.
- Supply-Chain Dependencies: One company's financial difficulties can affect multiple connected businesses.
- Limited Risk Visibility: Individual businesses may not have a clear picture of financial risks elsewhere in their supply chain.
- Reactive Decision-Making: Risks may become visible only after financial pressure has already intensified.
There is a need for a platform that helps users understand these interconnected risks before they potentially escalate.
Contagion Radar provides a centralized approach to exploring financial distress and its potential propagation across SME supply chains.
The platform is designed around five core objectives:
- Detect Risk Signals — Examine financial indicators that may suggest emerging distress.
- Connect Business Relationships — Represent financial dependencies between buyers, suppliers, and other entities.
- Trace Risk Propagation — Explore how one company's financial shock may affect connected businesses.
- Visualize Potential Impact — Make complex financial relationships easier to interpret.
- Support Early Intervention — Help stakeholders investigate risks and consider appropriate mitigation strategies.
Provide a centralized view of financial risk indicators and potential vulnerabilities across connected businesses.
Explore the relationships between buyers, suppliers, and other business entities to understand potential exposure to financial disruptions.
Illustrate how a delayed payment, liquidity shortage, or business default could trigger downstream financial pressure.
Highlight potential warning signals that may help businesses investigate financial vulnerabilities sooner.
Use AI-assisted analysis, where implemented, to make financial risk information easier to understand and interpret.
Access the deployed application through a browser without requiring a separate desktop installation.
Step 1 — Identify a Financial Shock
Consider an event such as a delayed invoice payment, a buyer default, or a sudden cash-flow shortage.
Step 2 — Examine Connected Businesses
Identify suppliers, buyers, and other entities that may be financially connected to the affected business.
Step 3 — Analyze Potential Risk Propagation
Explore how the initial disruption could affect connected businesses and create additional financial pressure.
Step 4 — Visualize the Risk Network
Present the relationships and potential downstream consequences in an understandable format.
Step 5 — Support Risk Mitigation
Use the resulting insights to investigate possible actions, such as prioritizing collections, reviewing credit exposure, or diversifying business relationships.
Imagine a small manufacturing company supplying components to a large buyer.
- The buyer delays an invoice payment.
- The manufacturer experiences a cash-flow shortage.
- The manufacturer delays payments to its raw-material suppliers.
- Those suppliers experience financial pressure of their own.
- The original payment delay potentially creates a wider supply-chain disruption.
Contagion Radar aims to help users explore this chain of events and identify where financial risks could spread.
- Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs)
- Supply-chain managers
- Financial analysts and risk teams
- Banks and lending institutions
- Trade finance providers
- Business consultants and researchers
- Earlier Risk Awareness: Help businesses investigate warning signals before a crisis escalates.
- Improved Financial Visibility: Highlight dependencies that may not be obvious when companies are analyzed individually.
- Supply-Chain Resilience: Encourage businesses to understand and manage financial exposure.
- Better Risk Prioritization: Help stakeholders focus attention on potentially vulnerable business relationships.
- Scalable Financial Intelligence: Provide a foundation for future supply-chain risk analytics across the MSME ecosystem.
- Frontend: react
- Backend: python
- Deployment: Vercel
Potential improvements include:
- Real-time invoice and payment tracking.
- Predictive models for SME financial distress.
- Interactive buyer-supplier dependency graphs.
- Financial risk scores for individual businesses.
- Early-warning alerts for delayed payments.
- Integration with verified MSME and trade-finance datasets.
- Scenario simulation for buyer defaults and liquidity shocks.
- Explainable AI-generated risk summaries.
- Integration with accounting and enterprise resource planning systems.
- Multilingual support for wider accessibility among Indian businesses.
- Risk indicators should be treated as decision-support information, not guaranteed predictions.
- Business and financial information should be validated before action is taken.
- Sensitive financial data must be handled securely.
- Risk scores should be interpreted alongside their underlying assumptions and limitations.
Contributions, suggestions, and improvements are welcome.
- Fork the repository.
- Create a feature branch.
- Implement and test your changes.
- Submit a pull request describing your contribution.
This project is intended for educational, research, and prototype purposes.
**Contagion Radar
https://vercel.com/aethergrid1/contagionradar
Contagion Radar — Predicting Financial Shockwaves Before They Hit India's SME Supply Chain.
Making hidden financial dependencies visible, one risk signal at a time.